Question 1

The trend pattern is easy to identify by using

Accepted Answer

A)   a moving average
B)   exponential smoothing
C)   regression analysis
D)   a weighted moving averageE) A) and C)
F) A) and B)

Question 2

Trend in a time series must be linear.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 3

All of the following are true about time series methods except

Accepted Answer

A)   They discover a pattern in historical data and project it into the future.
B)   They involve the use of expert judgment to develop forecasts.
C)   They assume that the pattern of the past will continue into the future.
D)   Their forecasts are based solely on past values of the variable or past forecast errors.E) B) and C)
F) A) and D)

Question 4

The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth out

Accepted Answer

A)   the random fluctuations.
B)   wide seasonal variations.
C)   significant trend effects.
D)   long range forecasts.E) All of the above
F) A) and C)

Question 5

Using a naive forecasting method, the forecast for next week's sales volume equals

Accepted Answer

A)   the most recent week's sales volume
B)   the most recent week's forecast
C)   the average of the last four weeks' sales volumes
D)   next week's production volumeE) B) and C)
F) A) and B)

Question 6

Which of the following forecasting methods puts the least weight on the most recent time series value?

Accepted Answer

A)   exponential smoothing with  α\alphaα  = .3
B)   exponential smoothing with  α\alphaα  = .2
C)   moving average using the most recent 4 periods
D)   moving average using the most recent 3 periods E) A) and B)
F) C) and D)

Question 7

Quantitative forecasting methods can be used when past information about the variable being forecast is unavailable.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

If the random variability in a time series is great and exponential smoothing is being used to forecast, then a high alpha ($\alpha$) value should be used.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

The exponential smoothing forecast for any period is a weighted average of all the previous actual values for the time series.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

All of the following are true about a cyclical pattern except

Accepted Answer

A)   It is often due to multiyear business cycles.
B)   It is often combined with long-term trend patterns and called trend-cycle patterns.
C)   It usually is easier to forecast than a seasonal pattern due to less variability.
D)   It is an alternating sequence of data points above and below the trend line.E) B) and C)
F) All of the above

Question 11

All of the following are true about a stationary time series except

Accepted Answer

A)   Its statistical properties are independent of time.
B)   A plot of the series will always exhibit a horizontal pattern.
C)   The process generating the data has a constant mean
D)   There is no variability in the time series over time.E) B) and C)
F) A) and B)

Question 12

Smoothing methods are more appropriate for a stable time series than when significant trend or seasonal patterns are present.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 13

Qualitative forecasting techniques should be applied in situations where time series data exists, but where conditions are expected to change.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

Using exponential smoothing, the demand forecast for time period 10 equals the demand forecast for time period 9 plus

Accepted Answer

A)    α\alphaα  times (the demand forecast for time period 8) 
B)    α\alphaα  times (the error in the demand forecast for time period 9) 
C)    α\alphaα  times (the observed demand in time period 9) 
D)    α\alphaα  times (the demand forecast for time period 9)  E) C) and D)
F) B) and D)

Question 15

The forecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no significant trend, cyclical, or seasonal pattern is

Accepted Answer

A)   moving average
B)   mean squared error
C)   mean average error
D)   qualitative forecastingE) None of the above
F) C) and D)

Question 16

All quarterly time series contain seasonality.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

Exponential smoothing with $\alpha$ = .2 and a moving average with n = 5 put the same weight on the actual value for the current period.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 18

A time series model with a seasonal pattern will always involve quarterly data.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Exam 15: Forecasting

If the random variability in a time series is great and exponential smoothing is being used to forecast, then a high alpha ( $\alpha$ ) value should be used.

Correct Answer
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All of the following are true about a cyclical pattern except

Correct Answer
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Using a naive forecasting method, the forecast for next week's sales volume equals

Correct Answer
verified

The forecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no significant trend, cyclical, or seasonal pattern is

Correct Answer
verified

All of the following are true about time series methods except

Correct Answer
verified

Qualitative forecasting techniques should be applied in situations where time series data exists, but where conditions are expected to change.

Correct Answer
verified

Using exponential smoothing, the demand forecast for time period 10 equals the demand forecast for time period 9 plus

Correct Answer
verified

Which of the following forecasting methods puts the least weight on the most recent time series value?

Correct Answer
verified

Exponential smoothing with $\alpha$ = .2 and a moving average with n = 5 put the same weight on the actual value for the current period.

Correct Answer
verified

The exponential smoothing forecast for any period is a weighted average of all the previous actual values for the time series.

Correct Answer
verified

All of the following are true about a stationary time series except

Correct Answer
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All quarterly time series contain seasonality.

Correct Answer
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The trend pattern is easy to identify by using

Correct Answer
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Trend in a time series must be linear.

Correct Answer
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The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth out

Correct Answer
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A time series model with a seasonal pattern will always involve quarterly data.

Correct Answer
verified

Smoothing methods are more appropriate for a stable time series than when significant trend or seasonal patterns are present.

Correct Answer
verified

Quantitative forecasting methods can be used when past information about the variable being forecast is unavailable.

Correct Answer
verified

Exam 15: Forecasting

If the random variability in a time series is great and exponential smoothing is being used to forecast, then a high alpha ( α\alphaα ) value should be used.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

All of the following are true about a cyclical pattern except

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Using a naive forecasting method, the forecast for next week's sales volume equals

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The forecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no significant trend, cyclical, or seasonal pattern is

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

All of the following are true about time series methods except

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Qualitative forecasting techniques should be applied in situations where time series data exists, but where conditions are expected to change.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Using exponential smoothing, the demand forecast for time period 10 equals the demand forecast for time period 9 plus

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following forecasting methods puts the least weight on the most recent time series value?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Exponential smoothing with α\alphaα = .2 and a moving average with n = 5 put the same weight on the actual value for the current period.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The exponential smoothing forecast for any period is a weighted average of all the previous actual values for the time series.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

All of the following are true about a stationary time series except

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

All quarterly time series contain seasonality.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The trend pattern is easy to identify by using

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Trend in a time series must be linear.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth out

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

A time series model with a seasonal pattern will always involve quarterly data.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Smoothing methods are more appropriate for a stable time series than when significant trend or seasonal patterns are present.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Quantitative forecasting methods can be used when past information about the variable being forecast is unavailable.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

If the random variability in a time series is great and exponential smoothing is being used to forecast, then a high alpha ( $\alpha$ ) value should be used.

Correct Answer
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Exponential smoothing with $\alpha$ = .2 and a moving average with n = 5 put the same weight on the actual value for the current period.

Correct Answer
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Correct Answer
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